Henry Ma's  Instablog

Top Stories Last Week

• Failure to Form a New Government in Greece Renewed Concerns on European Debt Crisis

Anti-austerity parties gained more seats in the Greek parliamentary elections on Sunday. Syriza, the Coalition of the Radical Left, won 16 % of the vote, projections showed. That exceeded the 13% won by socialist Pasok, one of the two main political parties. The conservative New Democracy topped the poll with 20%. During the week, the efforts of forming a coalition government by all three parties have failed because the pro- and the anti-bailout parties could not reach an agreement in the hung parliament. New elections will probably be held in June. EU leaders have warned that without a government backing the 130-billion euro rescue plan agreed in March, Greece would stop getting bailout and could find itself pushed out of the euro. Many analysts concluded that the chances of Greece's exit from euro were rising.

Global stock markets tumbled for the week as continued fears about the uncertainties on Greece and economic crisis in Europe drove the S&P 500 Index down by 1.2% on the week. MSCI EAFE Index and Emerging Market Index also slumped by 2.1% and 3.4% respectively.

• J.P. Morgan Slumped After $2 Billion Unexpected Trading Loss

Shares of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. dropped by more than 9% on Friday, hit by the bank's revelation that it had incurred a $2 billion trading loss. In its chief investment office, the bank had suffered a pretax trading loss of about $2 billion on its synthetic credit positions. It was a surprise to investors and an embarrassment to Jamie Dimon, the J.P. Morgan's CEO, who dismissed the concern earlier.

• Disney Shares Reached All-Time High

Shares of Walt Disney Co. reached their all-time high after the company reported strong earnings growth on Tuesday, driven by rising revenues at ESPN, and promised to capitalize on the runaway success of "The Avengers." Shares were traded as high as $45.80 on Wednesday.

• Bank of England Kept Monetary Policy Unchanged

The Bank of England kept its base interest rate at 0.5% on Thursday, and did not approve any additional monetary stimulus, despite Britain's falling back into recession, on the concern over persistently above-target consumer price inflation, currently at 3.5%.

Top Stories to Watch This Week

• US Inflation and Retail Sales

Analysts expect the headline Consumer Price Index is to increase by 0.1% in April, slower pace than last month. This will helps the Fed to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy until 2014.

Retails sales, the gauge about US consumers, are expected to rise by 0.2% in April, much lower than in March.

• US Housing Starts

US Housing Starts in April is expected to improve slightly to 0.69MM. The housing market recovery will have a long way to go.

• Greece's Efforts to Form a New Government

Market-watchers will continue monitoring the situation in Greece. Any developments on Greek's promise to stick to the austerity measures may have impacts on the markets.

• Euro-zone GDP

Most analysts expect that Euro-zone economy contracted 0.2% in the first quarter as results of continued debt crisis.

• Facebook IPO

Facebook is expected to make its debut late this week. The upcoming IPO, which is expected to value the company at around $95 billion, is the biggest technology IPO since Google went public in 2004

Weekly Performance Summary

All the portfolios declined in the week as results of negative performance across all the risk assets.

Table 1: ETF Performance

Table 2: Portfolio Performance

For more information about the multi-asset investment strategies, please visit allseasoninvesting.com.

About ALL SEASON INVESTING: All Season Investing is an investment blog, created in December 2011 to offer investors insights and researches on how to implement a dynamic multi asset allocation strategy with the low-cost index funds or ETFs to achieve consistent returns while limiting downside risks through all stages of a market cycle.

Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, EFA, VWO, IYR, AMJ, GLD, GSG, HYG, JNK, AGG, TIP, IEF, TLT, VNQ.

Top Stories Last Week

• US Added 115K Jobs in April, Disappointing the Markets

Hiring in the US slowed down in April as only 115K jobs were created in April, sharply below expectation. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.1%, but mostly because some 342K people had dropped out of the labor force. Most economists believe that the US is on a pace of adding 100k to 200k jobs per month in 2012, consistent with the sluggish economic growth of about 2%. The US stocks markets ended the worst week of 2012, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index retreated 1.4% and 2.1%, respectively.

• Manufacturing Activities Were Strengthening in US, Slowing in China and Weakening in Europe

US manufacturing activities expanded at a fastest rate in half a year. A monthly index compiled by the Institute for Supply Management showed a 54.8 reading, the largest gain since November 2011. In China, the official purchasing managers' index for manufacturing rose to 53.3 last month, its highest in more than a year, suggesting that Chinese economy is on track for a soft landing. In Europe, the economic activities declined at a faster pace than expected in April, according to PMI survey. The index slumped to 45.9. European recession is getting deeper as Spanish economy declined for the second quarter and was officially in recession. We believe that the divergences of economic performance across the major economic blocs will continue.

• ECB kept interest rates unchanged, Reserve Bank of Australia lowered interest rates by 50 basis points unexpectedly

The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged at 1% in its monthly meeting Thursday, consistent with market expectation. It did not give any indication on any new three-year loans to banks, or LTRO, despite its positive impact on market liquidity.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the markets with 50 basis points cut on its benchmark interest from 4.25% to 3.75%. The RBA also lowered its growth and inflation forecasts as weak job and housing markets keep price gains in check. One of the world's largest commodity-exporting economies is suffering from Chinese economic slowdown.

Top Stories to Watch This Week

• Earning season is winding down. CISCO and Disney will report earnings this week

Among the companies which have reported, 80% of them beat earning expectations. U.S. corporate profits have returned to prerecession levels of about 15 percent of gross domestic product, according to a report by the International Institute for Labour Studies released on Friday. This week, some bellwether corporations such as CISCO and Disney will report Q1 earnings.

• French Presidential Election

Socialist François Hollande defeated Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday to become France's next president. This may have big impacts on how Europe tackles its debt crisis. Hollande wanted to renegotiate a European treaty on budget cuts that Germany's Angela Merkel and Sarkozy had championed.

• Greek Parliamentary Election

Greeks are voting in parliamentary polls on Sunday. The country's two mainstream parties, the centre-left Pasok and centre-right New Democracy, are expected to lose support to anti-austerity candidates. Any political instability may prompt fresh questions over the country's ability to stick to the austerity measures and continue getting the international bailout fund.

• Bank of England Rate Decision

Bank of England's monetary policy committee will meet this week. It is expected to keep interest rate at 0.5% and bond purchase program unchanged.

Weekly Performance Summary

All the portfolios declined last week as results of negative performance across all the risk assets.

Table 1: ETF Performance

Table 2: Portfolio Performance

For more information about the multi-asset investment strategies, please visit allseasoninvesting.com.

About ALL SEASON INVESTING: All Season Investing is an investment blog, created in December 2011 to offer investors insights and researches on how to implement a dynamic multi asset allocation strategy with the low-cost index funds or ETFs to achieve consistent returns while limiting downside risks through all stages of a market cycle.

Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, EFA, VWO, IYR, AMJ, GLD, GSG, HYG, JNK, AGG, TIP, IEF, TLT, VNQ.

Top Stories Last Week

• US Stocks Closed Out A Strong Week on Upbeat Corporate Earnings

Stocks started the week on a sour note, with a sharp selloff on Monday as economic news showed further signs of Chinese economic slowdown and European contraction. But the Dow & S&P 500 climbed for four days in a row, driven mainly by better-than-expected corporate earnings. For the week, the Dow gained 1.5%. The S&P 500 advanced 1.8% and the Nasdaq is 2.3% higher for the week. As of Thursday, 300 companies in the S&P 500 had reported earnings, and 70% of them beat estimates, according to Capital IQ.

• FOMC Kept Interest Rates Unchanged

The Fed concluded its two-day meetings on Wednesday. The FOMC members appeared more optimistic about the prospects for growth and jobs this year. However, it is "premature to declare victory", said Ben Bernanke. The Fed intended to keep interest rates at 0 - 0.25% until the end of 2014, though many economists expected the Fed would have to start raising interest rates earlier.

• Apple's Earnings Surged

Apple Inc. reported on Tuesday that its earnings jumped 93% in the March quarter, largely fuelled by stronger-than-expected sales of the iPhone. IPhone shipments of 35.1 million units easily surpassed analysts' estimates. Shipments of the iPad came in at 11.8 million, 151% more than a year earlier. Net profit almost doubled to $11.6 billion. Apple shares regained much of the losses it suffered during the last week and a half.

• US Economy Grew At a Sluggish Rate of 2.2%

The US economy grew at a sluggish rate in the first quarter, stirring more doubts about the strength of the recovery and the outlook for jobs in coming months. The economy expanded at a 2.2% annual rate in the first three months of the year, down from a 3% pace in the fourth quarter of last year, the Commerce Department said Friday. Most analysts were expecting the gross domestic product to increase at a 2.6% in the first quarter. The disappointing GDP number mostly reflected a slowdown in business investments and a smaller buildup of inventories.

• Social Security Funds Will Run Out in 2033

According the Trustees' annual report, the social security trust funds will run out in 2033, three years earlier than previously projected. The grimmer outlook is due largely to changes in the Trustees' economic assumptions-for example, they're now projecting lower wage growth and higher unemployment-as well as a higher than predicted 3.6% cost of living increase for beneficiaries in 2012.

• UK Fell Back to Recession

The British economy unexpectedly shrank in the first three months of 2012, falling back into recession as construction activity and industrial output fell. The U.K. Office for National Statistics said GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of the year, following a 0.3% fall in the final quarter of last year.

Top Stories to Watch This Week

• Manufacturing Activities in US, China and Europe

China PMI manufacturing index will improve to 53.6 according to consensus. European economy is expected to contract more in April. The PMI manufacturing index will fall to 46 from 47.7. The US manufacturing activities will continue expand as ISM index remaining at 53 in April.

• US Job Reports

US economy will add 165K jobs in April and unemployment rate will remain at 8.2%. The job markets will give the ultimate indication on how robust the US economic recovery is.

• Central Banks Meetings

European Central Bank (ECB) will meet this week, no policy changes are expected. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to lower benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4% to stimulate its slowing economy.

Weekly Performance Summary

All the portfolios had strong performance as results of positive performance across the board during the week.

Table 1: ETF Performance

Table 2: Portfolio Performance

For more information about the multi-asset investment strategies, please visit allseasoninvesting.com.

About ALL SEASON INVESTING: All Season Investing is an investment blog, created in December 2011 to offer investors insights and researches on how to implement a dynamic multi asset allocation strategy with the low-cost index funds or ETFs to achieve consistent returns while limiting downside risks through all stages of a market cycle.

Disclosure: I am long SPY, IWM, EFA, VWO, IYR, AMJ, GLD, GSG, HYG, JNK, AGG, TIP, IEF, TLT, VNQ.