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Paulo Santos

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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • How Amazon's AWS Can Attract Ugly Economics [View article]
    Yes, that can happen. And in the big picture, AWS doesn't make much difference anyway.

    But it's an interesting phenomenon that might be useful for some people to know.
    May 23 12:44 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Facebook's (FB +2.8%) IPO-day trading volume rushes towards 500M, reports pile in (I, II, III) of trade confirmation problems. Expect Morgan Stanley (MS) and the NASDAQ to engage in some finger-pointing over the matter. An NYSE spokesman laughed and said he had no comment. Meanwhile, Facebook shares have fallen back to $39.06.  [View news story]
    dowjobber:
    1) The market is a complex beast and AMZN can trade at irrational valuations for quite a while before imploding. It wouldn't be the first to do it, and it won't be the last. Analysts defending it mean little, they can defend anything, and have, in the past.

    2) Wal-Mart while growing was never anywhere close to AMZN's overvaluation, it had a multiple of about 1/5th or so of AMZN's. It also never had 8 year periods with no growth in earnings, and never did its earnings implode.

    3) AMZN sells on price, while not leading on cost. That's not a good position to be in;

    4) In the past giant mail order catalog houses existed, and ended up losing to traditional retail. The bet on AMZN is a bet that the substitution of the huge paper catalog for an electronic catalog would have deeply transformed that industry's economics. It's a dubious bet.
    May 23 11:47 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) recorded $897M in outflows yesterday, the largest decline since August 2011. Commerzbank wants to see more days of outflows, but says it's surely a negative if even ETF investors are caught up "in the selling pull." More: Central GoldTrust (CTU) now trades at a discount to NAV vs. an average 3.4% premium over the past year.  [View news story]
    I'd be very careful with predicting long term bottoms here, unless uncle Ben comes to the rescue.
    May 23 10:49 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) recorded $897M in outflows yesterday, the largest decline since August 2011. Commerzbank wants to see more days of outflows, but says it's surely a negative if even ETF investors are caught up "in the selling pull." More: Central GoldTrust (CTU) now trades at a discount to NAV vs. an average 3.4% premium over the past year.  [View news story]
    Will this be the great puking that the old books talked about?
    May 23 10:40 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) recorded $897M in outflows yesterday, the largest decline since August 2011. Commerzbank wants to see more days of outflows, but says it's surely a negative if even ETF investors are caught up "in the selling pull." More: Central GoldTrust (CTU) now trades at a discount to NAV vs. an average 3.4% premium over the past year.  [View news story]
    I think "happy" will not take part in this event.
    May 23 10:33 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) recorded $897M in outflows yesterday, the largest decline since August 2011. Commerzbank wants to see more days of outflows, but says it's surely a negative if even ETF investors are caught up "in the selling pull." More: Central GoldTrust (CTU) now trades at a discount to NAV vs. an average 3.4% premium over the past year.  [View news story]
    You can imagine how it will be like such a large ETF selling into the physical market.
    May 23 10:16 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    Obviously I didn't - as I said, I'd only buy it if I could get it at the IPO price, and I'd flip it in the first session if I had bought it. So the returns would have been 0-12% of I had bought (which I didn't).
    May 23 07:11 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Key To Apple's Undervaluation And Amazon's Overvaluation [View article]
    AAPL being somewhat hit to fund FB purchases is realistic. The other part should be general market weakness.

    But no, I don't think you'd be seeing the opposite movement (selling FB to fund AAPL purchases) so soon.
    May 23 07:07 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's AWS Can Attract Ugly Economics [View article]
    Yes, I said as much - diversification mitigates it. But doesn't totally eliminate it, and doesn't remove the incentive for their large customers to do like Zynga did, transforming AWS into a peaking plant.
    May 23 06:55 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's AWS Can Attract Ugly Economics [View article]
    Yes, I said as much in the article, though with the customers being in the same geographical area, there will probably still be peaks.

    Also, that doesn't remove the incentive for any given customer to do as I explained.
    May 23 06:54 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    I wouldn't say someone that buys in the IPO to sell 1 day later isn't an investor because of that. It's something with a solid statistical base, he'd be as much of an investor as someone relying on statistical arbitrage to put the bread in the table.
    May 22 10:02 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    Yes, if possible one should buy every IPO (if one can get allocation), and then sell in the first session. Even FB had a 0-12% return if one did that.

    Read this: http://seekingalpha.co...

    OXF seems like it will have a rough time, like most coal producers. I'll try doing a new series tomorrow on several coal producers.
    May 22 09:07 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's AWS Can Attract Ugly Economics [View article]
    Yes, when they reach scale, doing like Zynga can actually present better economics for them than taking 100% of the capacity in-house. This happens because a lot of the capacity would otherwise sit idle.

    I believe a lot of companies will end up reaching the insight I describe above.
    May 22 08:49 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard's Jack Bogle takes advantage of Facebook's (FB) plunge and the negative impact it's had on the psyche of the retail investor to hammer home the merits of index investing. Bogle says: "It all comes down to value and it all goes away from price, and avoiding IPO's and avoiding individual stocks is the best strategy for investors." (video)  [View news story]
    Avoiding IPOs makes no sense. Avoiding holding IPO stock after the first session, now that's something altogether different.
    May 22 08:42 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    In the midst of many contracts it's always possible to have some ties like these, they don't look like terminal stuff given the values. The coal contract seems the worst, but that's spread over several years.
    May 22 06:42 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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