How a Downgrade of U.S. Debt Will Impact Stock and Bond Prices [View article]
Interesting article.
I tend to believe the credit and currency markets are aware of our dire circumstances and any downgrade would be simply an acknowledgement of what is already known.
Over the last 25 years real economic growth has been 2.6%; in the last decade it has been 1.6%.
Only Ireland and Mozambique have appreciably larger fiscal deficits as a percent of GDP than we do. And only Japan, Italy and Greece have more debt as a percent of GDP than we do.
Since these are hardly secrets and point to an unsustainable path, it's only a matter of time before our debt is downgraded. Failure to raise the debt ceiling will simply accelerate the inevitable.
While not disagreeing with anything said, what I have observed is broad, alternating themes of (1) reflation which is accompanied by strength in commodities and equities and (2) deflation which is accompanied by strength in the dollar and US Treasuries.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Boy yesterday was a trip...........and it was either programmed trading or the Boyz.
The cozy realtionship between the administration and the Boyz or Plummet Protection Force may become strained as Timmy wants to place hedge funds and private equity groups under federal supervision to better control financial risk and derivatives trading.
The administration’s framework would make it mandatory for large hedge funds, private-equity firms and venture-capital funds to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission, subjecting them to new disclosure requirements and inspections by the agency’s staff.
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
Thanks David
The indicators I read are somewhat mixed with the exception of what you point out and slow stochastics, which is higher than this past January and signaling a change of direction.
Overall, other chartists and technicians expect a choppy consolidation with some saying there is room for several more days of gains.
I'm glad Treasury is targeting the root problem but worry about bank solvency and the scale of the effort compared to legacy asset levels. Not knowing what potholes we might hit, it would be easy to get ahead of ourselves.
How a Downgrade of U.S. Debt Will Impact Stock and Bond Prices [View article]
I tend to believe the credit and currency markets are aware of our dire circumstances and any downgrade would be simply an acknowledgement of what is already known.
Over the last 25 years real economic growth has been 2.6%; in the last decade it has been 1.6%.
Only Ireland and Mozambique have appreciably larger fiscal deficits as a percent of GDP than we do. And only Japan, Italy and Greece have more debt as a percent of GDP than we do.
Since these are hardly secrets and point to an unsustainable path, it's only a matter of time before our debt is downgraded. Failure to raise the debt ceiling will simply accelerate the inevitable.
Key Factors Driving the Market [View article]
These relationships can be see here:
stockcharts.com/charts...
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
The cozy realtionship between the administration and the Boyz or Plummet Protection Force may become strained as Timmy wants to place hedge funds and private equity groups under federal supervision to better control financial risk and derivatives trading.
The administration’s framework would make it mandatory for large hedge funds, private-equity firms and venture-capital funds to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission, subjecting them to new disclosure requirements and inspections by the agency’s staff.
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
The indicators I read are somewhat mixed with the exception of what you point out and slow stochastics, which is higher than this past January and signaling a change of direction.
Overall, other chartists and technicians expect a choppy consolidation with some saying there is room for several more days of gains.
I'm glad Treasury is targeting the root problem but worry about bank solvency and the scale of the effort compared to legacy asset levels. Not knowing what potholes we might hit, it would be easy to get ahead of ourselves.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [View article]