I think there is around $1.3 trillion of CRE debt coming up for refinancing between now and 2013 which will put enormous pressure on bank balance sheets.
This is a major Fed talking point and they are obviously concerned about the potentially explosive combination of rising defults and paralysis in rolling over loans whose collateral has depreciated 35% to 40%.
There are simply too many malls, strip centers, apartment complexes and office buildings to accomodate consumers and businesses who are both cutting back.
Commercial Real Estate - Make Up Your Own Mind [View article]
It's an international delay action financial time bomb that is likely to explode after we first deny its existence and then postpone recognition of losses.
It is estimated that $1.3 trillion of US CRE debt will mature between now and 2013, setting off the next shock to the banking system for precisely the reason identified by the author
The commercial real estate market has been likened to a teetering Jenga tower.
Commercial Mortgage Portfolios and America's Banks: Is the Sky Falling? [View article]
Pasted below is a headline which appeared earlier. I would make a wager that S&P changed its methodology to accomodate the whims of the Fed as opposed to making refinements in its ratings methodology. The Fed wants to help CRE through the TALF facility but by law must hold AAA paper. Just a coincidence?
S&P unexpectedly switches its rating of some commercial mortgage-backed securities, upgrading the bonds to AAA just days after the same bonds had been sharply downgraded. The move further tarnishes S&P's already-shaky credibility.
Commercial Mortgage Portfolios and America's Banks: Is the Sky Falling? [View article]
This timebomb is ticking and when it explodes it could have the concussive forces as sub-prime did.
With $ 6.7trillion out there, 25% of which has been securitized, and $2.0 trillion coming due between now and 2018, there are serious refinancing issues as commercial properties have lost 35% of their peak values and vacancies and defaults are at record levels across the board. The pain, though, will be felt immediately as $ 1.4 trillion must be refinanced between now and 2013.
Not lost on congress, Bernanke in recent testimony answered many questions related to the threats posed by CRE and more or less said it was an area of concern, particularly for smaller banks. When you go to your Fed speak translator, this means they are scared shitless.
CMBS Delinquencies Soaring [View article]
This is a major Fed talking point and they are obviously concerned about the potentially explosive combination of rising defults and paralysis in rolling over loans whose collateral has depreciated 35% to 40%.
There are simply too many malls, strip centers, apartment complexes and office buildings to accomodate consumers and businesses who are both cutting back.
Commercial Real Estate - Make Up Your Own Mind [View article]
It is estimated that $1.3 trillion of US CRE debt will mature between now and 2013, setting off the next shock to the banking system for precisely the reason identified by the author
The commercial real estate market has been likened to a teetering Jenga tower.
Commercial Mortgage Portfolios and America's Banks: Is the Sky Falling? [View article]
S&P unexpectedly switches its rating of some commercial mortgage-backed securities, upgrading the bonds to AAA just days after the same bonds had been sharply downgraded. The move further tarnishes S&P's already-shaky credibility.
Commercial Mortgage Portfolios and America's Banks: Is the Sky Falling? [View article]
With $ 6.7trillion out there, 25% of which has been securitized, and $2.0 trillion coming due between now and 2018, there are serious refinancing issues as commercial properties have lost 35% of their peak values and vacancies and defaults are at record levels across the board. The pain, though, will be felt immediately as $ 1.4 trillion must be refinanced between now and 2013.
Not lost on congress, Bernanke in recent testimony answered many questions related to the threats posed by CRE and more or less said it was an area of concern, particularly for smaller banks. When you go to your Fed speak translator, this means they are scared shitless.