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Dr. V

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  • Chesapeake (CHK +2.6%) shares rally into the close on a Bloomberg report that Carl Icahn has purchased at least a 4% stake in the company. Note that the latest quarterly disclosure of Icahn's holdings showed no CHK shares; he had reported a 5.8% stake in Dec. 2010.  [View news story]
    Anybody following and doing the analysis should have been aware. It was reported end of last week that Ichan was buying in, and now the sheep became deer frozen in the headlights.

    Another reason laypeople should have to pass an examination and possess a license to trade, any CANNOT do this obviously.

    Or do I need to invoke FB as well?
    May 25 05:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Story Now Makes More Sense [View instapost]
    Too close to the matter myself, I would rather not comment.
    May 25 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks bounced off losses after Italian PM Monti said most leaders at the EU summit backed joint eurobonds and he'd push Germany to support them (good luck with that). Earlier, talk that China’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets was driving stocks lower. The euro tumbled to a 22-month low near $1.25; crude oil eased back above $90. NYSE losers slightly outnumbered gainers.  [View news story]
    "Most leaders", I think we can all agree, would suggest a majority.

    With that majority, Germany MUST be forced to do the right thing, or they can leave the Union as well, full stop.

    * (This would actually be a good idea, as the weakest (Greece) and the strongest (Germany) leaving would help create balance among the "new core" of France / Spain / Italy / Netherlands.)

    Germany's constant finger waving, and lectures focusing on their "pseudo" moral superiority and "masterful austerity", are starting to bore the rest at these summits. Germany is widely known as the hindrance to the EU / ECB.

    Who will pay to save Europe?

    Why the FED of course, Did you really think it would be Germany? Carrying 9 Trillion in Government Debt (accounting for 80% of EU Total Debt), they (Germany) are hardly fit to lecture anyone about finance.

    FED has already have given out Trillions to EU Banks who could never dream of servicing that debt, (taking "no collateral" loans), FED will start calling the shots sooner than you think, (like they aren't now, right?)

    See GAO FED Audit pgs 130-131.

    I don't understand Germany's anger though.

    Surely, with all that talk of "austerity", they (Germany) MUST have set aside a few hundred Bil Euros from the money they bled out of the periphery over the last ten (10) yrs, or? C'mon "Supersavers", show us the money, where is it?

    I mean seriously, preaching all that "saving" and "financial discipline", where's the money they pilfered, through predatory export tactics from the periphery?

    Not keen on discussing that are they?

    We keep hearing about "the economic steam train called Germany", but it sounds to me like it's jumped the track, OR..... it was all a lie, as I have been reporting since March 2010.

    Germany starting to run away from the fire, that they themselves have set. Not like it's the first time either, having themselves been reset to zero (0) no less than four (4) times, and walking away from tens (10's) of trillions in debt, leaving others to pay their debt for them (US / UK).

    Germany clearly the trigger to this impending collapse. Adjust your investment strategies accordingly.

    May 25 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angela Merkel hits the wires saying eurobonds would not contribute to growth and EU treaties forbid such joint liabilities. No decisions are expected at today's summit (other than scheduling the next one, of course). Fiscal union, she says, remains a long way off ... "roughly another 500-600 S&P points," snipes ZH, giving us the laugh of the day.  [View news story]
    She is clearly the enemy. Forget Iran, target Berlin.

    Hey Occupy kids in Germany, want to see something cool?

    It's called a bank run,.... no, no you don't have to do exercise, .....don't be afraid.

    It means instead of flash mobbing McDonalds, do the same thing at your nearest Deutsche Bank branch office, take out your money.

    20 mins. game over.
    May 23 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Told You So: Facebook's Ugly IPO Debut [View article]
    You wrote:

    "Like your comment up to this point... um EBITDA is over 2 billion... so after taxes, etc., yeah -- I don't think that's pathetic per say..."

    (I think you meant "Per se", brush up on your Latin, nu?)

    I will repeat, $1 BIL USD is pathetic for a company that pathological liars still claim is worth $104 BIL USD. One needn't be a financial savant to understand that this "new math" is clearly delusional.

    Here's a free lesson:

    Fair Market Value ("FMV") is the most relevant definition of "value" and is of the most interest to business owners.

    FMV is the measure of value most used by business appraisers, as well as the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the courts.

    FMV is essentially defined as "the value for which a business would sell assuming the buyer is under no compulsion to buy and the seller is under no compulsion to sell, and both parties are aware of all of the relevant facts of the transaction." IRS Revenue Rule 59-60 lists the following factors to consider in establishing estimates of FMV:

    1. The nature and history of the business.
    2. The general economic outlook and its relation to the specific industry of the business under review.
    3. The earnings capacity of the business.
    4. The financial condition of the business and the book value of the ownership interest.
    5. The ability of the business to distribute earnings to owners.
    6. Whether or not the business has goodwill and other intangible assets.
    7. Previous sales of ownership interests in the business and the size of ownership interests to be valued.
    8. The market price of ownership interests in similar businesses that are actively traded in a free and open market, either on an exchange or over-the-counter.

    *At $100 billion, Facebook would trade at 27 times last year's sales.

    Facebook conceded in its filing that "it expects growth to slow for both new users and revenue", that as well as their embarrassing IPO performance, spell the end for Facebook.

    Wow! He (Zuckerberg) has " TOTAL" command you say?

    Did you see the FB special on Bloomberg? He's gonna "f***" anyone who stands in his way? Pretty tough talk for a kid with a failing company, and a mountain of debt, and a phony "net worth" which only makes him a Billionaire "on paper", (same thing we laughed at during the dotcom comedy.)

    But if that is his fiendish plan, I guess he can start "f****** with the SEC then because that's exactly their plan for him and FB, as SEC is investigating, both FB and NASDAQ, as of Monday morning. The first Class Action lawsuit filed yesterday in Manhattan.

    After that lousy IPO, I would say nobody is in control of anything, kind of obvious control has been lost, after the underwriter had to pump $1 BIL USD in TWICE on the day of emission just to help boost price, and it STILL dropped like a rock.

    How did that work out by the way? Oh yeah, eevry major news network in the world is reporting wrong doing, it has gone viral.

    We proponents of the fall of FB, seem to have been right all along, as I said previously, here on SA:

    - Apr 10 02:18 AM "The people who invested heavily in FB, want their return, it's been seven (7) yrs and the exit has arrived. Anyone who provided capital to FB can smell trouble in the kitchen right now.

    - Apr 9 05:15 AM "Now, they have payouts to make to nine (9) capital investment firms when that IPO cash hits, because investors want to exercise their exit, one of which is expected to net a sum of $9 Bil USD, so now the company is ONLY worth $40 Bil USD, having lost $60 Bil USD in valuation.

    All the hype is to get people to jump in, THEY (FB & Co.) CASH OUT (investors want to exit after 7 yrs, and want out now as they smell what's coming) and the IPO emission investors are left holding the bag.

    - Apr 19 04:08 AM "ANY company that makes a claim of $100 Billion USD valuation, although they only made a pathetic $ 1 Bil USD in revenue, should be forced to show ALL due diligence, proving on paper at the very least, that they are even in that neighborhood. This obviously does not past the common sense test, unless of course your financials are being run by a magician.

    Best strategy would be to get in on that short, early. Let's see if they can give the BATS emission a run for their money.

    - Mar 29 10:13 AM "I maybe wrong, but the plank investors have already signaled their exit, that's the whole reason for the IPO, Facebook has no way to pay them all.

    SUMMARY:
    * Before the end of 2012, divorced, bankrupt, and story will break that his wife is a sleeper for Chinese Intelligence, and guess who has his program now?

    Why do you expect from a dropout? LOL.
    May 23 03:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Told You So: Facebook's Ugly IPO Debut [View article]
    What about Amazon?

    They (Amazon) have tangible assets.

    The opposite of a tangible asset is an intangible asset. See Facebook.

    Nonphysical assets, such as patents, trademarks, copyrights, goodwill and brand recognition, are all examples of intangible assets, and make up Facebook as far as valuation goes.
    May 23 03:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Told You So: Facebook's Ugly IPO Debut [View article]
    Right. That was the problem, the fills weren't getting back after the orders were made. Some are still waiting, which has prompted the first Class Action which was filed in New York District South Manhattan yesterday.

    See: Goldberg v. Nasdaq OMX Group Inc et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 12-04054.
    May 23 03:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany's 'Merkeltilism' Isn't Working - It Won't Ever For The PIIGS [View article]
    Excellent article. I have been saying much the same for the last 4 years, and most won't listen.
    May 22 05:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jamie Dimon "couldn't breathe" when he saw the actual positions behind the $2B (and growing) CIO loss, according to an inside-baseball account. Dimon's risk-management instincts appear over time to have been dulled by the profits the unit was producing, leaving him unaware the CIO had morphed from a hedging outfit to one making big directional plays.  [View news story]
    TVP,

    1) I hardly need ANY lessons, nor do I need to protect any market positions, but thank you for your concern, it is appreciated.

    2) The balance sheet argument was intended for those who are not aware of JPM's "true" problems (although relative, as balance sheets are a mere indicator, at best.), yourself an Economist, I am sure you are aware of that.

    3) Indeed, I do see the relationship between JPM Chase and the sector, how can one miss it? Sadly, it is not a defense of what has taken place here, neither does it excuse the fact that the bank's market cap is down $30 BIL USD, in the last ten (10) days. Of course JPM is not the only one, but they are the one, NOW.

    Systemic Risk is the key issue here. I am a Macroprudential guy, so of course I have my "risk goggles" on.

    In these days of risk mitigation, the last news a major like JPM Chase needs is that they are performing without a safety net. We all know that extraordinary gains are made by taking extraordinary risks, but this is not the time for risk, rather the time for implementation of macroprudential policies to mitigate systemic risk, and it is indeed a "top down" process. That's why it's a kick in the teeth for Shareholders, for Mr, Dimon to claim he didn't know what was going on. The news (pick one) said "he couldn't breath when he found out", it should have said "he couldn't think either when it came to making a risk assessment."

    * IF in fact, ANY "risk assessment" had been made to begin with (flipping a coin does not qualify as a "real" risk assessment.)

    FACTS AT HAND:

    A. I said losses would grow, they have.

    B. I also said that the stock would drop off, it has.

    C. I will repeat, "Mr. Dimon will be excused from his position as CEO", ....AND....he will be.

    He (Dimon) already made that decision for himself, didn't he?

    NOTE:
    In-action is an action, just as in-decision is a decision.

    We ALL make bad calls sometime, ......it's just his time.

    4) No axe to grind. Just letting you know how it STILL works on the Street. Shareholders are not subordinate to the CEO's, it is QUITE the other way around. He is ONLY keeping that chair warm.

    Do not underestimate the power structure. Shareholders will get what they "demand", one way......or the other.

    5) As Economists, we can surely agree to disagree, two (2) schools of thought in a collision.

    Point taken, respect.
    May 22 05:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jamie Dimon "couldn't breathe" when he saw the actual positions behind the $2B (and growing) CIO loss, according to an inside-baseball account. Dimon's risk-management instincts appear over time to have been dulled by the profits the unit was producing, leaving him unaware the CIO had morphed from a hedging outfit to one making big directional plays.  [View news story]
    I hardly need a lesson in journalistic ethics / responsibilities, thank you.

    Containment is a must in any risk assessment, (no longer taught in your era), sadly.

    Retreat is also a bitter pill, as your argument now runs for the safety of hiding behind "the whole sector along with the US economy?" Stick to the topic at hand.

    JPM has lost $30 BIL USD in Mkt Cap since this story broke.

    Here are the financials:

    http://bit.ly/KHkbeX


    It isn't rocket science (for most), read the facts:

    1) Assets - liabilities = Net Worth

    2) Look at their Debt, 3.5 X their Net Worth

    Debt: $728 BIL USD
    Net Worth: $190 BIL USD

    3) Check the negative cash flow, any of this registering?


    The dismissal of Mr. Dimon, is now a foregone conclusion.

    Pick up the WSJ once in a while and see that the Street is largely in agreement on this.

    This happened on his watch, therefore he must be sacrificed to appease the shareholder mob.


    In the event of a bank run, they will be finished within hours.

    Containment is the ONLY strategy in order for JPM to survive, full stop.

    Their "sponsors" in London will announce what I have suggested within days, remember where you heard it first.

    Hardly crazy talk.
    May 21 05:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts From The Front Line: Dr. Frankenstein's Europe [View article]
    Indeed I am not, and you have a rather bad habit of putting your words into my mouth.

    Those are your words with the intent to discredit what you refuse to understand, and wish to dismiss only in order to elevate your particular, which you have every right to express, just not in that form of delivery.

    It is however, the German mentality, that everyone else is too stupid, too lazy, yaddah yaddah. Currently in Frankfurt, we hear this from Ministers on a daily basis, and frankly it is shocking that these people are walking around freely.


    From a largely blue collar country (14% of which study past the 10th Grade), Germany's arrogance is second to none.

    This Pseudo "moral superiority" has led Germany to some very dark places in the recent past, and with MASSIVE integration problems and a freshly rekindled hatred for France, Spain, Italy & Greece, Germany must take a long hard look at itself and it's exploitation techniques, intended to sew confusion among it's unstudied masses.
    May 21 05:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts From The Front Line: Dr. Frankenstein's Europe [View article]
    That's the mentality that led to this problem in the first place.

    You wrote:
    "There is no obvious solution as all are bad, leaving it to Germany sort through and evaluate its various options including it leaving the EMU;"

    Their (Germany's) constant interference, manipulation, and predatory policy guidelines have brought the periphery to this deathbed, no one else.

    Forget the world hating on Iran, GERMANY should be on their radar screens. This economic debacle was instigated with the ice cold intent of ruining a Europe which they (Germany) could not conquer, and failed to control, so they chose to destroy it.

    No lessons learned.
    May 20 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jamie Dimon "couldn't breathe" when he saw the actual positions behind the $2B (and growing) CIO loss, according to an inside-baseball account. Dimon's risk-management instincts appear over time to have been dulled by the profits the unit was producing, leaving him unaware the CIO had morphed from a hedging outfit to one making big directional plays.  [View news story]
    According to Maria Bartiromo, yes.

    Just saw it again on WSJR, AND.... a confirmed loss in Market Cap of $30 BIL USD, since the story broke.

    Their balance sheet is smelly, and their cash flow is deep in the red.

    Currently carrying $728 BIL USD in debt, according to balance sheet, and a Net Worth of $190 BIL USD.

    See: http://bit.ly/KHkbeX

    Assets - Liabilities = Net Worth

    The are going facedown, after WaMu, kind of deserving, nu?
    May 20 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jamie Dimon "couldn't breathe" when he saw the actual positions behind the $2B (and growing) CIO loss, according to an inside-baseball account. Dimon's risk-management instincts appear over time to have been dulled by the profits the unit was producing, leaving him unaware the CIO had morphed from a hedging outfit to one making big directional plays.  [View news story]
    Comment of the Month, well spotted.
    May 20 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Told You So: Facebook's Ugly IPO Debut [View article]
    And yes you can short on emission day.

    The quick answer to this question is that an IPO can be shorted upon initial trading, but it is not an easy thing to do at the start of the offering.

    To be able to short a stock, you usually need to borrow it from an institution such as your brokerage firm. For them to lend it to you, they need an inventory of this stock. Here's where the difficulty can arise with IPOs and short selling: an IPO usually has a small amount of shares upon initial trading, which limits the amount of shares that can be borrowed for shorting purposes. On the day of the IPO, two main parties hold inventory of the stock: the underwriters and institutional and retail investors. As determined by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is in charge of IPO regulation in the U.S., the underwriters of the IPO are not allowed to lend out shares for short sale for 30 days. On the other hand, institutional and retail investors can lend out their shares to investors who want to short them.

    So, while there are regulatory and practical obstacles to doing it, it is still possible to short sell shares in a company the same day the company goes public.

    That is the reason underwriters stepped in 2 X to pump in $1 BIL USD, within 2 hours (total $2 BIL USD), otherwise it would have tanked.
    May 20 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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